Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Latest Polls on Impeachment
Way back at the start of the "Ending Impeachment Myths" series, in which much of the data available six months ago is collected, I noted:
It seems reasonable to assume that support for impeachment has increased since last October, but it will take more scientific polling to confirm this. The question is: Who will be brave enough to find out?
In the wake of Dennis Kucinich's move to bypass Pelosi's "off the table" policy on the House floor, recent polls by Rasmussen Reports and the American Research Group have finally shed some new light on what Americans are thinking.
The ARG poll shows a stunning indictment by the public:
- a large majority thinks Bush and/or Cheney have abused their power as members of the executive branch
- in both cases, majorities believe Bush and Cheney have committed impeachable offenses
However, there is less agreement concerning opinion on what should be done about the situation:
- According to ARG, 43% believe Cheney should be removed from office
- According to Rasmussen, 31% believe Cheney should be impeached and removed from office, while 40% believe he should not.
- the news on H Res 799 was followed either "very closely" or "somewhat closely" by 48%
- 37% followed it, but "not very closely"
- 14% report that they followed it "not at all"
Perhaps most surprising, the Rasmussen poll found that respondents asked "Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate who actively works to have Vice-President Cheney impeached?" had a greater chance of saying "less likely" (36%) than "more likely" (25%). It is possible that the wording here had some effect on the end results, if some respondents interpreted the question as being about their likelihood of voting for Kucinich -- the only candidate visibly associated with the matter in the news.
Both polls were taken in the days immediately following Kucinich's introduction of H Res 799, with the ARG poll coming after the Rasmussen survey. Do the differences in support for a Cheney impeachment reflect rapidly-changing opinion, or just differences in methodology?
Back in July (immediately following the commutation of Scooter Libby's sentence), a groundbreaking ARG poll found that 54% of the public favored "beginning impeachment proceedings against Vice President Dick Cheney". Has the overall trend of support for impeachment gone down?
Maybe, and maybe not. The new ARG data finds that 27% of the public believes Cheney abused his power, but that either that the abuse is not serious enough to warrant impeachment or that impeachment should not happen even though the abuse warrants it. It is my firm belief that the start of hearings would both increase the level of public interest and start changing the minds of some of that 27%.
I look forward to more data.
